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May 29, 2020

When will Quarantine end?

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When bars reopen, as they have done in U.S. cities and places around the world, they will do so in large numbers, and for whatever reason, there are social dissociation measures to slow down the number of people coming into close contact with them. If bars are crowded when they reopen – and they will host parties, especially at home – it will push people into bars, giving the remaining coronaviruses and asymptomatic hosts a chance to infect others who could then pass them on.

The increase in COVID-19 infections has begun to slow in many parts of the country, prompting state and local governments to ease lockdown restrictions and allow businesses to reopen gradually as they continue to take steps to control the spread of disease. Of course, we will continue to practise common hygiene, and opening hours and opening times can vary considerably depending on where you live, but it is a truism around the world that closures and restrictions will not be lifted all at once. Remember that relaxed restrictions do not necessarily mean that the outbreak of the coronavirus is over, even if a vaccine does eventually arrive.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for example, issued guidelines this week requiring schools, factories and other businesses to reopen.

These recommendations underpin a path laid out by the White House and Johns Hopkins University. We don’t need to pull back too soon to implement the measures at home, “said Dr. David Markel, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. After the 1918 flu pandemic, more than 20 U.S. cities that loosened their physical evacuation orders while the flu virus was still circulating saw a new surge in cases, he said.

This phase of social distancing may have to continue for the next two years, he said, but not for much longer, the report said.

If Oregon lifted restrictions on social distancing a little more, to a 50% reduction, there would still be 600 new infections a day, but hospitals would not be overwhelmed, and transmission rates would be reduced by 60%. Cases will rise over the next six weeks as social distance is loosened, more people die and more infections cause more deaths. Many retailers and malls were allowed to reopen this week, and customers have been slow to return, he said.
It aims to assess the impact that small behavioural changes can have on infection rates. It’s less important to look at trends than to look at the actual numbers, he said.
He believes that with these measures it will be possible to restart the lives of people who will inevitably still be ill, he believes.

Experts need to look at local data to determine how and when restrictions will be lifted, Chowell-Puente says. Different cities and states need to better understand their own local transmissions and take responsibility for the disease burden before considering relaxing restrictions, if at all, he says. They will also “need to remember that in the event of another wave of transmission, lockdown measures may have to be imposed again,” adds Ch Powell – and they will “need to be reminded” that they may also “need to be reassessed.”

Experts say the stay – at home – will continue for at least a few more weeks, if not longer, because of the risk of further transmission.

He said: “Over time there will be a significant reduction in the number of cases in places where physical distance measures are effectively maintained. More testing will be needed to determine whether people are immune to meet demand.

This does not mean that the deadly coronavirus has disappeared, but a differentiated, tailor-made approach is needed to get people back to work and loosen residence rules – at home. In the US and around the world, the gradual adoption of this approach and the lifting of lockdown restrictions has already begun.
In the USA, 79,000 people have already died of COVID-19 diseases, and the number is on the rise. We know that life will be different when cities and states reopen as local leaders try to boost the economy while trying to contain a second wave of coronavirus infections.

In the US and around the world, gradual moves to lift lockdown restrictions have already begun, but that does not mean that the deadly coronavirus has disappeared. As we count down the days until we can leave stadiums, hug our friends, throw parties, and board planes, we must remember that restrictions are being eased, and that we still do not know much.

In the USA, 79,000 people have already died of COVID-19 diseases, and the number is on the rise. We know that life will be different when cities and states reopen as local leaders try to boost the economy while trying to contain a second wave of coronavirus infections. As we count down the days until we can leave stadiums, hug our friends, throw parties, and board planes, we must remember that restrictions are being eased, but that we still don’t know much.

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